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National Ethnic Population Projections: 2013(base)–2038 (update)
Embargoed until 10:45am  –  18 May 2017
Key facts

National ethnic population projections indicate New Zealand's future population for eight broad and overlapping ethnic groups.

The projections indicate a 90 percent chance that New Zealand's:

  • 'European or Other' population (3.31 million in 2013) will increase to 3.55–3.73 million in 2025 and to 3.61–3.97 million in 2038.
  • Māori population (0.69 million in 2013) will increase to 0.83–0.91 million in 2025 and to 0.98–1.16 million in 2038.
  • Asian population (0.54 million in 2013) will increase to 0.90–1.02 million in 2025 and to 1.16–1.38 million in 2038.
    • Chinese population (0.20 million in 2013) will increase to 0.31–0.37 million in 2025 and to 0.38–0.50 million in 2038.
    • Indian population (0.18 million in 2013) will increase to 0.28–0.35 million in 2025 and to 0.35–0.47 million in 2038.
  • Pacific population (0.34 million in 2013) will increase to 0.44–0.48 million in 2025 and to 0.53–0.65 million in 2038.
    • Samoan population (0.17 million in 2013) will increase to 0.22–0.24 million in 2025 to 0.26–0.34 million in 2038.
  • Middle Eastern/Latin American/African population (0.05 million in 2013) will increase to 0.10–0.12 million in 2025 to 0.15–0.19 million in 2038.

The projections also indicate:

  • The 'European or Other' ethnic group will be the only group to decrease its share of New Zealand's population over the projection period.
  • Age structures are going to change, with the number of people aged over 65 years set to increase in all ethnic groups.
  • New Zealand's overall diversity will be higher in 2038 than in 2013, due to a slow population growth for the 'European or Other' group and high levels of natural increase and migration for other ethnic groups.
 Graph, Projected 'European or Other' and Asian populations 2013–38.  Graph, Projected Maori and Pacific populations, 2013–38.
 Graph, Projected Indian and Samoan populations, 2013–38.  Graph, Projected Samoan and MELAA populations, 2013–38.

Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician
ISSN 1178-0592 
18 May 2017

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