Gross domestic product: September 2023 quarter
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Gross domestic product: September 2023 quarter
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Gross domestic product: September 2023 quarter – visualisation CSV
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Key facts
In the September 2023 quarter, compared with the June 2023 quarter:
- GDP fell 0.3 percent
- expenditure on GDP fell 0.7 percent
- goods producing industries fell 2.6 percent
- service industries rose 0.4 percent
- primary industries rose 0.6 percent
- GDP per capita fell 0.9 percent
- real gross national disposable income fell 0.3 percent
- current price expenditure on GDP rose 1.2 percent.
GDP rose 1.3 percent over the year ended September 2023, compared with the year ended September 2022.
All movements are in real terms unless stated otherwise.
New Zealand economy down in September 2023 quarter
Economic activity fell 0.3 percent in the September 2023 quarter as measured by gross domestic product. This follows a 0.5 percent rise in the June 2023 quarter. GDP rose 1.3 percent over the year ended September 2023 compared with the year ended September 2022.
Expenditure on GDP fell 0.7 percent in the September 2023 quarter, following a 0.9 percent rise in the June 2023 quarter. Expenditure on GDP rose 1.1 percent over the year ended September 2023 compared with the year ended September 2022.
Breakdown of GDP by production
|
|
Jun 2023 quarter |
Sep 2023 quarter |
Annual average |
|
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing |
-0.9 |
0.8 |
3.7 |
|
Mining |
3.4 |
-1.8 |
-0.2 |
|
Primary industries |
-0.5 |
0.6 |
3.2 |
|
Manufacturing |
0.8 |
-3.4 |
-6.9 |
|
Electricity, gas, water, and waste services |
2.6 |
-2.5 |
2.4 |
|
Construction |
1.6 |
-1.7 |
0.0 |
|
Goods-producing industries |
1.4 |
-2.6 |
-2.9 |
|
Wholesale trade |
-0.3 |
-1.9 |
0.3 |
|
Retail trade and accommodation |
-1.1 |
-0.2 |
-2.9 |
|
Transport, postal, and warehousing |
0.9 |
-4.5 |
4.2 |
|
Information media and telecommunications |
-0.2 |
1.5 |
3.1 |
|
Financial and insurance services |
1.9 |
1.1 |
3.7 |
|
Rental, hiring, and real estate services |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
|
Business services |
1.1 |
0.2 |
3.7 |
|
Public administration and safety |
2.5 |
0.5 |
3.1 |
|
Education and training |
2.2 |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
|
Health care and social assistance |
-0.1 |
2.3 |
3.8 |
|
Arts, recreation, and other services |
2.4 |
1.8 |
7.3 |
|
Service industries |
0.9 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
|
Unallocated taxes |
-4.4 |
-4.9 |
0.7 |
|
Gross domestic product |
0.5 |
-0.3 |
1.3 |
|
Note: For September 2023 quarter, the measures of average annual growth compare activity over the most recent year YE – year ended |
|||
Downwards drivers – change in production
Manufacturing was down 3.4 percent, driven by:
- petroleum, chemical, plastic, and rubber products manufacturing
- food, beverage, and tobacco manufacturing.
Transport, postal and warehousing was down 4.5 percent, driven by:
- transport support services.
Construction was down 1.7 percent, driven by:
- construction services
- non-residential building construction.
Wholesale trade was down 1.9 percent, driven by:
- motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts wholesaling
- grocery, liquor, and tobacco product wholesaling.
Upwards drivers – change in production
Healthcare and social assistance was up 2.3 percent, driven by:
- private sector medical and other healthcare services
- central government healthcare and social assistance.
Rental, hiring and real estate services was up 1.0 percent, driven by:
- owner-occupied property operation
- rental and hiring services (except real estate).
Breakdown of GDP by expenditure
|
|
Jun 2023 quarter |
Sep 2023 quarter |
Annual average |
|
Household final consumption expenditure |
0.0 |
-0.6 |
1.3 |
|
Non-profit organisations serving households |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
9.5 |
|
Private consumption expenditure |
0.0 |
-0.6 |
1.4 |
|
Central government expenditure |
3.8 |
-2.2 |
-2.6 |
|
Local government expenditure |
0.6 |
1.5 |
7.6 |
|
General government expenditure |
3.4 |
-1.8 |
-1.5 |
|
Gross fixed capital formation |
0.2 |
-3.4 |
-1.0 |
|
Gross capital formation |
-5.0 |
5.6 |
-2.5 |
|
Gross national expenditure |
-0.7 |
0.2 |
-0.2 |
|
Exports of goods and services |
4.7 |
-2.6 |
9.4 |
|
Less imports of goods and services |
-0.8 |
-0.3 |
2.7 |
|
Expenditure on gross domestic product |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
1.1 |
|
Note: For September 2023 quarter, the measures of average annual growth compare activity over the most recent year YE – year ended |
|||
Downwards drivers – change in expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation was down 3.4 percent, driven by:
- transport equipment
- non-residential building.
Exports of goods and services was down 2.6 percent, driven by:
- other food, beverages, and tobacco
- coal, crude petroleum and ores, minerals, and gases
- agriculture and fishing primary products.
This was partially offset by a rise in:
- travel services.
Household spending (household consumption expenditure) was down 0.6 percent, driven by:
- durables, down 3.2 percent.
Upwards drivers – change in expenditure
Inventory levels rose $700 million in the September 2023 quarter, driven by:
- distribution.
New Zealand’s real purchasing power falls in the September 2023 quarter
In the September 2023 quarter, compared with the June 2023 quarter:
- real gross national disposable income fell 0.3 percent
- real gross national disposable income per capita fell 0.9 percent.
In the year ended September 2023, compared with the year ended September 2022:
- annual real gross national disposable income rose 0.3 percent
- annual real gross national disposable income per capita fell 1.3 percent.
While GDP measures economic activity, real gross national disposable income (RGNDI) measures the volume of goods and services that New Zealand residents have command over, that is, the real purchasing power of the country’s disposable income. RGNDI is also affected by changes in the terms of trade, the country’s net investment income, and net transfer flows with the rest of the world.
New Zealand’s ability to buy goods and services from its income, RGNDI, fell 0.3 percent in the September 2023 quarter. Economic activity, the terms of trade, net transfer flows, and net investment income on our international investments all decreased.
Over the September 2023 quarter, export prices fell 1.4 percent and import prices fell 0.8 percent, decreasing the terms of trade in the quarter. A decrease in the terms of trade results in more exports being needed to pay for a given volume of imports. This means that residents can purchase fewer goods and services by volume from the income generated from a given level of domestic production.
The 0.3 percent fall in RGNDI, coupled with a population increase of 0.6 percent over the quarter, decreased RGNDI per capita by 0.9 percent in the quarter.
Annually, RGNDI grew 0.3 percent over the year to September 2023 while RGNDI per capita fell 1.3 percent over the year.
New Zealand and trade partners, September 2023 quarter
|
Country |
Quarterly percentage change in GDP |
Percentage change from |
|
New Zealand |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
|
Australia |
0.2 |
2.1 |
|
Canada |
-0.3 |
0.5 |
|
Euro area (20 countries) |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
|
European Union (27 countries) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Japan |
-0.7 |
1.6 |
|
OECD – Total |
0.5 |
1.7 |
|
United Kingdom |
0.0 |
0.6 |
|
United States |
1.3 |
3.0 |
|
Data as at 13 December 2023. See OECD.Stat for GDP data covering other countries. Care |
Seasonal adjustment additive outlier treatment
Sharp changes in activity pose challenges for our usual seasonal adjustment processes. Over the last few years, we have applied additive outlier treatment to our headline GDP estimates, as well as to those industries and components with major impacts from border closures or domestic COVID-19 restrictions. This has had the effect of subduing the impact of unusual data points on the seasonal adjustment process.
The irregular impacts of COVID-19 largely finished in the June 2022 quarter and for the majority of affected series we have stopped applying additive outlier treatment from the September 2022 quarter onwards. As activity returns to more stable patterns – although perhaps different from pre-COVID patterns – there will be a period of greater than usual uncertainty around seasonal adjustment factors, especially for series heavily affected by COVID restrictions.
Gross domestic product: September 2023 quarter – changes and data updates – DataInfo+ has more information.
Quarterly and annual growth revised due to annual benchmarking, method changes, and updated data
In the September quarter of each year, we reconcile quarterly constant price series to new annual national accounts data which have been through the process of supply-use balancing.
This reconciliation process is essential to maintain the quality of the quarterly series over time by allowing us to include more comprehensive detail previously uncaptured by our quarterly indicators. We also incorporate methodology changes and updated data sources into our series.
The new annual data comes from two releases, published on 17 November 2023:
- National accounts (industry production and investment): Year ended March 2022
- National accounts (income and expenditure): Year ended March 2023.
Annual benchmark updates can have a significant effect on quarterly estimates of economic growth. The impact of structural changes and updated data result in revised annual and quarterly growth rates, especially for the most recent periods as our quarterly growth estimates reflect more of the recent changes in the structure of the economy.
For more information on updates to GDP, see:
The annual benchmark data for 2022 was used to update the weights used for aggregating the lower-level components in the production measure of GDP, through a process called chain-linking. Updating chaining weights allows the changing structure of the New Zealand economy to be reflected in the volume series.
The graph below shows how each industry contributed to quarterly GDP.
The graph below shows how each component contributed to quarterly expenditure on GDP.
Text alternative for Gross domestic product, industry growth, and contribution to growth, September 2023 quarter
Image shows a column graph, pie chart, and bar chart showing growth, share of the economy, and contribution to growth in the September 2023 quarter for the primary, goods-producing, and services industries. Column chart shows that primary industries rose 0.6 percent, goods-producing industries fell 2.6 percent, and service industries rose 0.4 percent. A pie chart shows that service industries make up about two-thirds of GDP, goods-producing industries about one-fifth and primary industries about one-twentieth. A bar chart shows industry contribution to the GDP growth rate: primary industries contributed 0.04 percent, goods-producing contributed -0.5 percent, and services contributed 0.3 percent.
More data
Use Infoshare to access the national accounts time series.
Subject category: Economic indicators
Group: National accounts – SNA 2008
Structure of the economy
We no longer produce the gross domestic product data visualisation product. The CSV file ‘Gross domestic product: September 2023 quarter – visualisation CSV’ under Download data contains the underlying data previously used to produce this.
The tourism satellite account provides a picture of the role tourism plays in New Zealand, with information on the changing levels and impact of tourism activity.
Definitions and metadata
National accounts quarterlies – DataInfo+ provides the general methodology used to produce these statistics.
National accounts quarterlies – concepts – DataInfo+ provides the definitions of terms used in this release.
Gross domestic product: September 2023 quarter – changes and data updates – DataInfo+ has details of revisions for this release.
Overview of sources and methods for quarterly gross domestic product: Updates and COVID-19 adjustments provides an overview of changes to our usual quarterly GDP methods, including alternative data sources and methods we are using to measure the effects of COVID-19 in New Zealand.
Media enquiries
Sandi Reily
021 285 9191
media@stats.govt.nz
Technical enquiries
Katrina Dewbery
04 931 4841
info@stats.govt.nz
ISSN 1178-0290
Next release
Gross domestic product: December 2023 quarter will be released on 21 March 2024.
