National labour force projections: 2017(base)–2068

National labour force projections give an indication of the future supply of people available for work.

Key facts

National labour force projections give an indication of the future supply of people available for work.

The latest projections indicate:

• New Zealand's labour force will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow.
• The labour force (2.6 million in 2017) will increase to 2.8–3.6 million in 2038 and to 2.7–4.3 million in 2068 (indicative range from 5th and 95th percentiles).
• The labour force will age, reflected in a rising median age and an increasing proportion of the labour force being in the older ages.
• The labour force aged 65+ (171,000 in 2017) will increase to 246,000–379,000 in 2038 and to 270,000–570,000 in 2068.
• The proportion of the labour force that is 65+ (6 percent in 2017) will increase to 8–11 percent in 2038 and to 9–15 percent in 2068.
• The proportion of the 65+ population that is in the labour force (23 percent in 2017) will increase slightly. The indicative range is 18–28 percent in 2038 and 15–29 percent in 2068.
• The overall participation rate (68 percent in 2017) is projected to fall to between 61–71 percent in 2038 and to 54–70 percent in 2068.
• The average number of hours that people in the labour force work (or are available for work) is projected to remain around 37 a week – ranging between 33–40 hours a week in 2038 and 31–42 hours a week in 2068.

The labour force includes people aged 15 years and over who:

• regularly work for one or more hours a week for financial gain
• work without pay in a family business
• are unemployed and actively seeking part-time or full-time work.

People who are not in the labour force are:

• those aged under 15 years
• students who do not work for pay
• people who are unemployed and not actively seeking work
• some people with childrearing responsibilities
• people who work without pay (but not in a family business), and people who have retired.
  
  
• The ratio of people who are not in the labour force to those who are (economic dependency ratio) was 81 in 2017 and is projected to be 66 to 117 in 2068.

More data

Use NZ.Stat to access national labour force population projections:

National labour force projections, by age and sex, 2017(base)–2068

National labour force projections, characteristics, 2017(base)–2068

Definitions and metadata

National labour force projections – DataInfo+ provides information about methods and assumptions.

Labour force concepts – Datainfo+ provides definitions of terms relating to the labour force used in this release.

Population concepts – Datainfo+ provides definitions of terms relating to population used in this release.

Projection method concepts – Datainfo+ provides definitions of terms relating to projections used in this release.

Media enquiries

Hamish Slack
03 964 8372
info@stats.govt.nz

Technical enquiries

Kim Dunstan
03 964 8330
info@stats.govt.nz

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