Stats NZ

Cigarette price rise offsets cheaper petrol

The consumers price index (CPI) rose 0.1 percent in the March 2019 quarter, due to higher prices for cigarettes, Stats NZ said today.

CPI inflation was also 0.1 percent in the December 2018 quarter.

In the year to March 2019, the inflation rate was 1.5 percent, down from 1.9 percent in the December 2018 year.

The annual tobacco tax increase on 1 January 2019 lifted cigarette and tobacco prices 9.0 percent this quarter. The tax increase is the third of four consecutive excise duty increases announced in the 2016 Budget. The Government increased excise tax on tobacco by 11.9 percent (see New rates for tobacco and tobacco products), but not all products showed the full impact of the tax change in their prices.

“The average price of a pack of 25 cigarettes was $37.48 in March, up from $34.57 in December,” consumer prices senior manager Paul Pascoe said.

“One cigarette now costs about $1.50 compared with $1.15 at the start of 2016. Ten years ago cigarettes cost about 54 cents each.”

Created with Highcharts 5.0.14Price per pack of 25 ($)CPI weighted average price of cigarettes, per pack of 25, March 2009–March 2019 quarters201020112012201320142015201620172018201910152025303540Stats NZ

CPI weighted average price of cigarettes, per pack of 25, March 2009–March 2019 quarters

Created with Highcharts 5.0.14Price per pack of 25 ($)CPI weighted average price of cigarettes, per pack of 25, March 2009–March 2019 quartersPrice per pack of 25 ($)201020112012201320142015201620172018201910203040Stats NZ
DateTimePrice per pack of 25 ($)
2009-03-0113.43
2009-06-0113.43
2009-09-0113.32
2009-12-0113.28
2010-03-0113.46
2010-06-0114.31
2010-09-0114.73
2010-12-0115.02
2011-03-0116.39
2011-06-0116.39
2011-09-0116.39
2011-12-0116.39
2012-03-0118.46
2012-06-0118.46
2012-09-0118.46
2012-12-0118.46
2013-03-0120.79
2013-06-0120.79
2013-09-0120.79
2013-12-0120.79
2014-03-0122.88
2014-06-0122.86
2014-09-0123.25
2014-12-0123.3
2015-03-0126.42
2015-06-0126.42
2015-09-0126.43
2015-12-0126.43
2016-03-0128.79
2016-06-0128.8
2016-09-0128.81
2016-12-0128.82
2017-03-0131.6
2017-06-0131.63
2017-09-0131.69
2017-12-0131.68
2018-03-0135.14
2018-06-0135.19
2018-09-0135.17
2018-12-0134.57
2019-03-0137.48

Excluding the rise in cigarettes and tobacco, inflation fell 0.1 percent in the March 2019 quarter.

Over the year, cigarettes and tobacco prices increased 7.7 percent. Contributing to this was the 1.3 percent fall in the December 2018 quarter.

Transport prices drive inflation down

Inflation was low in the March 2019 quarter because of falls in the prices of petrol and international airfares.

The price of petrol fell 7.0 percent from the December 2018 quarter. The average price of 91 octane, after discounts (for the entire March quarter), was $2.01 a litre.

“Lower petrol prices in January and February contributed to an overall lower average price for the quarter,” Mr Pascoe said.

“However, by the last week of March, the petrol pump price was 3.7 percent higher than the March quarter average and prices continued to rise in the first half of April.”

Petrol prices fell 7.7 percent in the North Island excluding Auckland and Wellington, and 7.1 percent in Auckland, in the March 2019 quarter. This compared with 6.0 percent falls in both Wellington and the South Island.

Created with Highcharts 5.0.14IndexBase: June 2006 quarter (=1000)CPI petrol by region, quarterly indexes, June 2006–March 2019AucklandWellingtonRest of North IslandCanterburyRest of South Island2007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019800100012001400Stats NZ

CPI petrol by region, quarterly indexes, June 2006–March 2019

Created with Highcharts 5.0.14IndexCPI petrol by region, quarterly indexes, June 2006–March 2019AucklandWellingtonRest of North IslandCanterburyRest of South Island2007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019800100012001400Stats NZ
DateTimeAucklandWellingtonRest of North IslandCanterburyRest of South Island
2006-06-011,0001,0001,0001,0001,000
2006-09-01991991994991990
2006-12-01839841842840841
2007-03-01846847848851852
2007-06-01914915916922920
2007-09-01933926934937935
2007-12-01984971984988985
2008-03-011,0211,0141,0231,0281,024
2008-06-011,1521,1441,1541,1601,156
2008-09-011,2091,1921,2071,2071,204
2008-12-01938921937938935
2009-03-01928918928931927
2009-06-01957949957962960
2009-09-01976965979981979
2009-12-01967954968974972
2010-03-011,0341,0241,0361,0391,036
2010-06-011,0481,0361,0501,0511,048
2010-09-011,0341,0231,0371,0381,035
2010-12-011,1041,0931,1051,1091,106
2011-03-011,2101,2031,2141,2111,213
2011-06-011,2581,2491,2611,2621,260
2011-09-011,2161,2071,2191,2211,217
2011-12-011,2251,2171,2281,2361,233
2012-03-011,2551,2481,2541,2651,262
2012-06-011,2591,2511,2611,2691,267
2012-09-011,2431,2481,2481,2591,259
2012-12-011,2261,2401,2421,2541,254
2013-03-011,2531,2571,2581,2681,262
2013-06-011,2191,2251,2271,2391,232
2013-09-011,2891,2891,2951,3061,300
2013-12-011,2441,2481,2481,2651,259
2014-03-011,2551,2631,2611,2781,271
2014-06-011,2491,2681,2541,2811,276
2014-09-011,2551,2891,2631,3021,297
2014-12-011,1861,2121,1941,2271,222
2015-03-011,0611,0931,0561,1041,099
2015-06-011,1581,1881,1451,2001,194
2015-09-011,1821,1991,1671,2101,204
2015-12-011,0901,1311,0771,1451,137
2016-03-019961,0549941,0661,061
2016-06-011,0401,1201,0451,1371,129
2016-09-011,0331,0781,0421,0931,087
2016-12-011,0731,1371,0651,1571,150
2017-03-011,1181,1891,0981,2131,209
2017-06-011,0991,1551,0871,1781,173
2017-09-011,0821,1201,0791,1491,144
2017-12-011,145.1581,200.0451,138.0891,227.4761,223.439
2018-03-011,190.2171,209.2851,182.6561,228.6541,222.266
2018-06-011,220.9891,260.1051,212.0051,288.7321,269.186
2018-09-011,328.6911,320.1651,250.051,340.5641,329.009
2018-12-011,334.1861,285.5151,257.6591,299.3341,287.954
2019-03-011,239.6721,208.131,160.9161,221.5861,210.536

Seasonal falls for international airfares also offset the overall quarterly rise. Prices fell 12 percent in the quarter.

“International airfares typically rise in the peak travel period during the December quarter and then fall in the March quarter,” Mr Pascoe said.

New rent method

Stats NZ is moving to using tenancy bond data for calculating rent in the CPI. The new monthly series is available from the January 2019 reference month, including a back series.

Rental price indexes provides links to the monthly releases.

Using a new methodology and data source has many benefits. Landlords will no longer need to fill in a rent survey, and there will be full coverage of all tenancy bonds, rather than using a sample survey. This will also reduce respondent burden, save money, and mean more frequent and more accurate releases.

The new method will be introduced into the CPI in the next release (June quarter 2019, to be published in July 2019). The CPI rent movement in that quarter will be based on the monthly rental price indexes for April, May, and June.

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