Stats NZ

Net migration reversal to Australia

After a year of small net migration gains from Australia, the latest six months indicate small net migration losses to Australia, Stats NZ said today.

There were provisional net migration losses to Australia of 1,100 and 2,700 in the December 2020 and March 2021 quarters, respectively. These estimates use quarterly data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which is currently available up to March 2021.

“Although we had more people moving to Australia than arriving in the last two quarters, we still had a small net migration gain of 1,800 in the year ended March 2021. This was down from a peak net migration gain from Australia of 8,000 in the year ended September 2020,” population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said.

Created with Highcharts 5.0.14NumberEstimates from June 2020 are provisional and subject to revision.Estimated migration between New Zealand and Australia, quarterly, December 2003–March 2021Migrant arrivals (from Australia to New Zealand, estimated from Stats NZ data)Migrant departures (from New Zealand to Australia, estimated from ABS data)Net migration (from Australia to New Zealand)Dec-2003Jun-2004Dec-2004Jun-2005Dec-2005Jun-2006Dec-2006Jun-2007Dec-2007Jun-2008Dec-2008Jun-2009Dec-2009Jun-2010Dec-2010Jun-2011Dec-2011Jun-2012Dec-2012Jun-2013Dec-2013Jun-2014Dec-2014Jun-2015Dec-2015Jun-2016Dec-2016Jun-2017Dec-2017Jun-2018Dec-2018Jun-2019Dec-2019Jun-2020Dec-2020-20k-10k010k20kStats NZ

Estimated migration between New Zealand and Australia, quarterly, December 2003–March 2021

Created with Highcharts 5.0.14NumberEstimated migration between New Zealand and Australia, quarterly, December 2003–March 2021Migrant arrivals (from Australia to New Zealand, estimated from Stats NZ data)Migrant departures (from New Zealand to Australia, estimated from ABS data)Net migration (from Australia to New Zealand)Dec-2003Jun-2004Dec-2004Jun-2005Dec-2005Jun-2006Dec-2006Jun-2007Dec-2007Jun-2008Dec-2008Jun-2009Dec-2009Jun-2010Dec-2010Jun-2011Dec-2011Jun-2012Dec-2012Jun-2013Dec-2013Jun-2014Dec-2014Jun-2015Dec-2015Jun-2016Dec-2016Jun-2017Dec-2017Jun-2018Dec-2018Jun-2019Dec-2019Jun-2020Dec-2020-20k-10k010k20kStats NZ
QuarterMigrant arrivals (from Australia to New Zealand, estimated from Stats NZ data)Migrant departures (from New Zealand to Australia, estimated from ABS data)Net migration (from Australia to New Zealand)
Dec-20036,66313,078-6,415
Mar-20045,46311,566-6,103
Jun-20044,3478,913-4,566
Sep-20044,4389,021-4,583
Dec-20045,99510,580-4,585
Mar-20054,85312,008-7,155
Jun-20053,87910,313-6,434
Sep-20054,1679,918-5,751
Dec-20055,76511,306-5,541
Mar-20064,68611,768-7,082
Jun-20063,68110,542-6,861
Sep-20064,27610,772-6,496
Dec-20065,91512,611-6,696
Mar-20074,73813,717-8,979
Jun-20073,80812,795-8,987
Sep-20074,25211,862-7,610
Dec-20075,74014,100-8,360
Mar-20084,50215,675-11,173
Jun-20083,62014,136-10,516
Sep-20084,01913,474-9,455
Dec-20085,84414,648-8,804
Mar-20094,70213,432-8,730
Jun-20094,1809,415-5,235
Sep-20094,7588,777-4,019
Dec-20096,50910,862-4,353
Mar-20105,26412,227-6,963
Jun-20104,44211,040-6,598
Sep-20104,85911,843-6,984
Dec-20106,24414,083-7,839
Mar-20115,00216,753-11,751
Jun-20113,81114,892-11,081
Sep-20114,32814,347-10,019
Dec-20115,99015,838-9,848
Mar-20124,81217,611-12,799
Jun-20123,95915,036-11,077
Sep-20124,93314,094-9,161
Dec-20127,23015,044-7,814
Mar-20136,07914,982-8,903
Jun-20135,45811,237-5,779
Sep-20136,8019,896-3,095
Dec-20139,27710,847-1,570
Mar-20147,55310,253-2,700
Jun-20146,3257,969-1,644
Sep-20147,4027,856-454
Dec-201410,0889,249839
Mar-20158,0019,345-1,344
Jun-20156,7917,407-616
Sep-20157,8027,570232
Dec-201510,4269,3961,030
Mar-20168,44810,066-1,618
Jun-20166,5598,793-2,234
Sep-20167,4778,784-1,307
Dec-20169,9979,438559
Mar-20177,6628,877-1,215
Jun-20176,2037,360-1,157
Sep-20176,7127,561-849
Dec-20179,0188,594424
Mar-20186,8948,548-1,654
Jun-20185,5917,142-1,551
Sep-20186,4997,465-966
Dec-20188,3828,563-181
Mar-20196,7068,445-1,739
Jun-20196,0307,374-1,344
Sep-20197,3917,766-375
Dec-201910,5779,799778
Mar-20208,7747,1581,616
Jun-20201,8635801,283
Sep-20205,4841,1384,346
Dec-20204,3125,381-1,069
Mar-20213,0045,721-2,717

Estimated migration between New Zealand and Australia, quarterly, December 2003–March 2021

The country of last previous residence (CLPR) of migrants arriving in New Zealand and Australia is not always known.

To estimate net migration using the two series ‘Estimated migrant arrivals to Australia…(Quarterly)’ and ‘Estimated migrant arrivals by citizenship, visa type and CLPR, 12/16-month rule (Quarterly)…’, an allowance for non-response to the CLPR question on both New Zealand and Australian arrival cards has been made.

For ‘Estimated migrant arrivals by citizenship, visa type and CLPR…’ non-response to CLPR is pro-rated based on the distribution of those with a CLPR by citizenship (‘NZ’, ‘non-NZ’). These estimates will differ from the Infoshare series, which makes no adjustment for CLPR non-response.

For ‘Estimated migrant arrivals to Australia…’ the proration is based on a combination of birthplace ('NZ', 'non-NZ') and citizenship ('NZ', 'non-NZ').

International travel and migration patterns between Australia and New Zealand have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments in multiple countries, including New Zealand and Australia, introduced border and international travel restrictions in early 2020, affecting travel to and from those countries.

Historically, there has been a net migration loss of New Zealand residents to Australia, but this has fluctuated over time. For example, the net loss averaged 27,000 a year in the early 2010s compared with 3,000 a year in the late 2010s.

Trans-Tasman migration trends have been driven by departures from New Zealand to Australia. By comparison, flows from Australia to New Zealand have generally hovered at lower levels.

Created with Highcharts 5.0.14NumberEstimates from June 2020 are provisional and subject to revision.Estimated migration between New Zealand and Australia, rolling year ended, September 2004–March 2021Migrant arrivals (from Australia to New Zealand, estimated from Stats NZ data)Migrant departures (from New Zealand to Australia, estimated from ABS data)Net migration (from Australia to New Zealand)Sep-2004Mar-2005Sep-2005Mar-2006Sep-2006Mar-2007Sep-2007Mar-2008Sep-2008Mar-2009Sep-2009Mar-2010Sep-2010Mar-2011Sep-2011Mar-2012Sep-2012Mar-2013Sep-2013Mar-2014Sep-2014Mar-2015Sep-2015Mar-2016Sep-2016Mar-2017Sep-2017Mar-2018Sep-2018Mar-2019Sep-2019Mar-2020Sep-2020Mar-2021-50k050k100kStats NZ

Estimated migration between New Zealand and Australia, rolling year ended, September 2004–March 2021

Created with Highcharts 5.0.14NumberEstimated migration between New Zealand and Australia, rolling year ended, September 2004–March 2021Migrant arrivals (from Australia to New Zealand, estimated from Stats NZ data)Migrant departures (from New Zealand to Australia, estimated from ABS data)Net migration (from Australia to New Zealand)Sep-2004Mar-2005Sep-2005Mar-2006Sep-2006Mar-2007Sep-2007Mar-2008Sep-2008Mar-2009Sep-2009Mar-2010Sep-2010Mar-2011Sep-2011Mar-2012Sep-2012Mar-2013Sep-2013Mar-2014Sep-2014Mar-2015Sep-2015Mar-2016Sep-2016Mar-2017Sep-2017Mar-2018Sep-2018Mar-2019Sep-2019Mar-2020Sep-2020Mar-2021-50k050k100kStats NZ
Year endedMigrant arrivals (from Australia to New Zealand, estimated from Stats NZ data)Migrant departures (from New Zealand to Australia, estimated from ABS data)Net migration (from Australia to New Zealand)
Sep-200420,91142,578-21,667
Dec-200420,24340,080-19,837
Mar-200519,63340,522-20,889
Jun-200519,16541,922-22,757
Sep-200518,89442,819-23,925
Dec-200518,66443,545-24,881
Mar-200618,49743,305-24,808
Jun-200618,29943,534-25,235
Sep-200618,40844,388-25,980
Dec-200618,55845,693-27,135
Mar-200718,61047,642-29,032
Jun-200718,73749,895-31,158
Sep-200718,71350,985-32,272
Dec-200718,53852,474-33,936
Mar-200818,30254,432-36,130
Jun-200818,11455,773-37,659
Sep-200817,88157,385-39,504
Dec-200817,98557,933-39,948
Mar-200918,18555,690-37,505
Jun-200918,74550,969-32,224
Sep-200919,48446,272-26,788
Dec-200920,14942,486-22,337
Mar-201020,71141,281-20,570
Jun-201020,97342,906-21,933
Sep-201021,07445,972-24,898
Dec-201020,80949,193-28,384
Mar-201120,54753,719-33,172
Jun-201119,91657,571-37,655
Sep-201119,38560,075-40,690
Dec-201119,13161,830-42,699
Mar-201218,94162,688-43,747
Jun-201219,08962,832-43,743
Sep-201219,69462,579-42,885
Dec-201220,93461,785-40,851
Mar-201322,20159,156-36,955
Jun-201323,70055,357-31,657
Sep-201325,56851,159-25,591
Dec-201327,61546,962-19,347
Mar-201429,08942,233-13,144
Jun-201429,95638,965-9,009
Sep-201430,55736,925-6,368
Dec-201431,36835,327-3,959
Mar-201531,81634,419-2,603
Jun-201532,28233,857-1,575
Sep-201532,68233,571-889
Dec-201533,02033,718-698
Mar-201633,46734,439-972
Jun-201633,23535,825-2,590
Sep-201632,91037,039-4,129
Dec-201632,48137,081-4,600
Mar-201731,69535,892-4,197
Jun-201731,33934,459-3,120
Sep-201730,57433,236-2,662
Dec-201729,59532,392-2,797
Mar-201828,82732,063-3,236
Jun-201828,21531,845-3,630
Sep-201828,00231,749-3,747
Dec-201827,36631,718-4,352
Mar-201927,17831,615-4,437
Jun-201927,61731,847-4,230
Sep-201928,50932,148-3,639
Dec-201930,70433,384-2,680
Mar-202032,77232,097675
Jun-202028,60525,3033,302
Sep-202026,69818,6758,023
Dec-202020,43314,2576,176
Mar-202114,66312,8201,843

Estimated migration between New Zealand and Australia, rolling year ended, September 2004–March 2021

The country of last previous residence (CLPR) of migrants arriving in New Zealand and Australia is not always known.

To estimate net migration using the two series ‘Estimated migrant arrivals to Australia…(Quarterly)’ and ‘Estimated migrant arrivals by citizenship, visa type and CLPR, 12/16-month rule (Quarterly)…’, an allowance for non-response to the CLPR question on both New Zealand and Australian arrival cards has been made.

For ‘Estimated migrant arrivals by citizenship, visa type and CLPR…’ non-response to CLPR is pro-rated based on the distribution of those with a CLPR by citizenship (‘NZ’, ‘non-NZ’). These estimates will differ from the Infoshare series, which makes no adjustment for CLPR non-response.

For ‘Estimated migrant arrivals to Australia…’ the proration is based on a combination of birthplace ('NZ', 'non-NZ') and citizenship ('NZ', 'non-NZ').

New Zealand citizens traditionally dominate trans-Tasman migration flows. In the year ended March 2021, they made up nearly 90 percent of migrant arrivals from Australia and about 70 percent of migrant departures to Australia.

Since the removal of departure cards in November 2018, the destination where migrants are going is no longer available. However, using data from the ABS we are publishing estimates of migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia (for pre-COVID information, see Migration to Australia halves).

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