Greenhouse gas emissions (industry and household): September 2020 quarter

Stats NZ has developed new experimental quarterly estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, to provide more timely data on New Zealand’s production-based emissions. This is done within the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework in order to track emissions in relation to economic activity.

This initial experimental release includes data up to and including the September 2020 quarter. Quarterly emissions data allows for a more detailed understanding of the timing and impact of events such as COVID-19 lockdowns, which annual data can obscure.

Key results

September 2020 quarter compared with the June 2020 quarter using seasonally adjusted data. Note that seasonally adjusted emissions values are not additive.

• Total emissions were down 8.1 percent (1,641 kilotonnes) in the June quarter and have since rebounded, up 9.1 percent (1,682 kilotonnes) in the September quarter.
• This compares with gross domestic product (GDP) which saw the largest fall on record (11 percent) in the June quarter, followed by the largest rise on record (14 percent) in the September quarter. The increase in GDP was driven primarily by low emissions-intensive industries such as service industries (up 11 percent). Service industries make up approximately two-thirds of the economy yet contribute on average only 10 percent of emissions.

When looking at the experimental quarterly greenhouse gas emissions estimates in more detail, each published industry saw a drop in emissions in the June quarter followed by an increase in the September quarter (although the decrease and subsequent increase in agriculture, forestry, and fishing was minimal).

• Household emissions fell 27 percent (608 kilotonnes) in the June quarter and increased 47 percent (754 kilotonnes) in the September quarter.
• Electricity, gas, water, and waste services fell 2.6 percent (56 kilotonnes) in the June quarter, followed by an increase of 26 percent (562 kilotonnes) in the September quarter. A dry quarter reduced hydro inflow and as a result there was stronger reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation.
• Services excluding transport, postal and warehousing emissions fell 8.3 percent (75 kilotonnes) in the June quarter and increased 20 percent (166 kilotonnes) in the September quarter.
• Construction emissions fell 22 percent (68 kilotonnes) in the June quarter and increased by 46 percent (113 kilotonnes) in the September quarter.
• Transport, postal, and warehousing emissions fell 55 percent (812 kilotonnes) in the June quarter and increased by 15 percent (99 kilotonnes) in the September quarter.
• Mining emissions fell 16 percent (58 kilotonnes) in the June quarter and increased 8.5 percent (27 kilotonnes) in the September quarter.
• Manufacturing emissions fell 1.5 percent (39 kilotonnes) in the June quarter and increased 0.5 percent (13 kilotonnes) in the September quarter.
• Agriculture, forestry, and fishing emissions fell 0.2 percent (24 kilotonnes) in the June quarter and was relatively unchanged, up 2 kilotonnes in the September quarter.

See Greenhouse gas emissions (industry and household): September 2020 quarter – methodology and results for the sources and methods used to create these estimates. You can also find more results in part 3 of the report.

Industries

Early releases of this data will be experimental with estimates available for seven industry groups (which are aggregations of industries based on the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification 2006), along with household direct emissions.

The seven industry groups are:

• agriculture
• mining
• manufacturing
• electricity, gas, water, and waste services
• construction
• services excluding transport, postal, and warehousing
• transport, postal, and warehousing.

Future updates

Driven by clear customer need, it is Stats NZ’s ambition to produce ongoing quarterly emissions estimates that more closely match the timeliness and high frequency of economic statistics. The experimental nature of these estimates means that methodological changes and revisions are expected. It is Stats NZ’s current intention to release an update to QGHG (for the December 2020 quarter) in the second quarter of 2021.

About the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA)

The SEEA production-based emissions estimates transform the New Zealand’s greenhouse gas inventory data to be consistent with economic classifications and concepts by changing the unit of analysis and applying the residency principle. This means deducting emissions from non-residents operating on the domestic territory (for example, international tourists driving vehicles) and adding emissions from residents operating overseas (for example, international aviation or shipping).

See previous greenhouse gas emissions releases:

• Greenhouse gas emissions (industry and household): Year ended 2018
• Greenhouse gas emissions (consumption-based): Year ended 2017
• Greenhouse gas emissions by region (industry and household): Year ended 2018.

The Excel tables provide information on actual emissions estimates and seasonally adjusted estimates.

‘Actual’ emissions data (sometimes referred to as ‘unadjusted’) has significant seasonality so it is important to do any comparisons with the same period of the previous year (for example, September 2020 quarter compared with the September 2019 quarter).

Seasonally adjusted data is better suited for showing quarter on quarter movements (for example, September 2020 quarter compared with the June 2020 quarter) as seasonality is removed.

Send us your feedback

Please send us your feedback about this release by filling in the form below.

Data sources

Various indicators have been used to produce these estimates, including both direct and indirect indicators.

Direct indicators relate directly to the substance or process that is central to the emission (for example, the use of a substance such as coal).

Indirect indicators are often termed proxy indicators and are used where data for direct measures are not available (for example, total economic output).

To ensure complete coverage of industries and emissions sources, quarterly estimates are required when no indicator is available. This is done using interpolation for benchmark years or forecasting for later quarters.

As QGHG is based on the SEEA framework, it means it is able to be compared with economic statistics, such as quarterly gross domestic product. Data used for comparisons made in this report is from Gross domestic product: September 2020 quarter.

Quarterly emissions estimates are based on information available at the time of compilation. Revisions to the time series will be inevitable, resulting from the incorporation of updated annual benchmarks and quarterly indicators.

These estimates use the following key releases as input data:

• Greenhouse gas emissions (industry and household): Year ended December 2018 (published 10 June 2020)
• Energy quarterly: June 2020 quarter (published 10 December 2020)
• Gross domestic product: September 2020 quarter (published 17 December 2020).

Release notes

Version 1, 17 February 2021

Send us your feedback

Stats NZ welcomes feedback on the methodology used to produce these new experimental estimates as it is the intention to develop them into official statistics. If you would like to provide feedback, or have an enquiry, please contact GHG quarterly feedback.