International migration: November 2021 – Infoshare tables
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Use Infoshare to access time-series data for international travel and migration:
Subject category: Tourism
Group: International travel and migration – ITM
Impact of COVID-19 on international migration
From January 2020, governments have imposed international travel restrictions in multiple countries, due to the spread of COVID-19 around the world. In March 2020, the New Zealand government introduced further measures to protect New Zealanders from the COVID-19 virus, effectively limiting travel to New Zealand.
See Implications of worldwide travel restrictions on recent migration estimates.
Key facts
The comparisons between the November 2021 and 2020 months and years use the latest provisional estimates for each period.
The provisional estimates have 95 percent confidence intervals (±) beside them – the wider the interval, the greater the uncertainty about the estimate. However, these intervals reflect the model uncertainty, not the extent of future revisions to provisional data.
Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months. Migration data transformation has more information about the migration estimates, including the 12/16-month rule and a monthly summary of the number of border movements, the number requiring modelling as migrants or non-migrants, and the history of revisions to migration estimates (see Comparison of provisional and final migration estimates: August 2017–November 2021).
Annual migration
Provisional estimates for the year ended November 2021 compared with the year ended November 2020 were:
- migrant arrivals: 46,700 (± 500), down 56 percent
- migrant departures: 50,700 (± 500), down 14 percent
- annual net migration loss: 4,000 (± 700), down from a net gain of 47,000 (± 20).
The provisional net migration loss of 4,000 in the year ended November 2021 was driven by a loss of 9,800 non-New Zealand citizens, compared with a net gain of 5,800 New Zealand citizens.
This continues a reversal of historical patterns. New Zealand usually has an annual net migration gain of non-New Zealand citizens and an annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens.
Monthly migration
Provisional estimates for November 2021 compared with November 2020 were:
- migrant arrivals: 2,700 (± 200), down 44 percent
- migrant departures: 2,600 (± 200), down 50 percent
- monthly net migration gain: 100 (± 300), an increase from a net loss of 300 (± 20).
There was a provisional net migration loss of 4,000 in the year ended November 2021. This was made up of net losses totalling 5,200 across eight of the 12 months (December 2020 to June 2021, and August 2021), which exceeded a small net gain of 1,200 across more recent months (July 2021, and September to November 2021).
Migration estimates in more recent months have greater uncertainty and are therefore subject to larger revisions than estimates for earlier periods.
Implications of worldwide travel restrictions on recent migration estimates
There were high estimates of migrant arrivals and net migration between late 2019 and early 2020. Many travellers who arrived in late 2019 and early 2020 prolonged their stay in New Zealand. This included visitors on a range of visa types, including New Zealand citizens visiting from overseas (see also the 25 March 2020 discussion in About 250,000 visitors in New Zealand).
The travel of people living in New Zealand has also been curtailed, resulting in fewer short-term and long-term (migrant) departures of New Zealand citizens in the months after March 2020 compared with previous months.
Why migration estimates change
The outcomes-based measure of migration with provisional and final estimates is the official way we measure migration in New Zealand (see also International migration uses new official measure).
To classify a border crossing as a migrant movement, we need to observe up to 16 months of travel history, and it takes 17 months before final migration estimates are available, using the 12/16-month rule.
To produce timely results, we use a statistical model to produce provisional migration estimates. As new data becomes available each month, the provisional migration model has more information about the border crossings it is trying to estimate. This causes shifts in the estimated number of migrant arrivals and migrant departures, and thus, changes in the net migration estimates.
Early and provisional international travel data
Each week, Stats NZ releases early and provisional international travel statistics – International travel (provisional) – to facilitate analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact on New Zealand’s inbound and outbound tourism sectors. This includes:
- weekly travel data for short-term overseas visitor and New Zealand-resident arrivals
- arrivals and departures data based solely on border crossings into and out of New Zealand
- stock estimates of visitors in New Zealand and New Zealand residents travelling overseas, based on arrivals and departures.
Provisional daily border-crossing data is also being updated daily on the Stats NZ COVID-19 data portal.
Change to seasonal adjustment
Travel and border restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic have introduced sharp decreases to many international migration series. For series that are seasonally adjusted, these abrupt drops and sustained low levels pose challenges. Since the release of April 2020 data in June 2020, we have been suppressing the trend series (see International migration: March 2020 – Suspension of trend estimates) and ensuring COVID-19 effects do not influence the seasonal pattern.
As travel volumes look set to remain low for some time due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and as historical seasonal patterns are no longer evident, we are applying a split-adjustment approach to seasonally adjusted series. Months up to March 2020 are seasonally adjusted, and months from April 2020 (inclusive) reflect observed actual values without seasonal, trading-day, or holiday adjustment. This approach will continue until an observable seasonal pattern returns to each series.
Text alternative for diagram International migration estimates (provisional), year ended November 2021
Diagram shows outcomes-based (provisional) estimates of migration, by citizenship (New Zealand or non-New Zealand) for the year ended November 2021. Overall, net migration is -4,000, made up of a net gain of 5,800 NZ citizens (based on 23,900 migrant arrivals, a 42 percent decrease on the year ended November 2020, and 18,100 migrant departures, a 10 percent increase) and a net loss of 9,800 non-NZ citizens (based on 22,800 migrant arrivals, a 65 percent decrease on the year ended November 2020, and 32,600 migrant departures, a 23 percent decrease).
Definitions and metadata
International migration – DataInfo+ gives general methodology used to produce international travel and migration statistics.
International migration concepts – DataInfo+ gives definitions of terms used in this release.
Subnational short-term NZ-resident arrivals – DataInfo+ gives methodology for determining the New Zealand-location information in short-term New Zealand-resident arrival records.
Media enquiries
Sandi Reily
021 285 9191
media@stats.govt.nz
Technical enquiries
Dave O'Donovan
03 964 8924
info@stats.govt.nz
ISSN 2624-2702
Next releases
International migration: December 2021 (with quarterly commentary) will be released on 15 February 2022.
International migration: January 2022 – Infoshare tables will be released on 14 March 2022.
International migration: February 2022 – Infoshare tables will be released on 12 April 2022.
