New Zealand's population likely to reach 6 million before 2040

The population living in Aotearoa New Zealand is likely to grow from 5.3 million currently to eclipse 6 million by 2040, according to projections released by Stats NZ today.

Two-thirds of that growth is likely to come from net international migration (migrant arrivals less migrant departures), with the remainder from natural increase (births less deaths).

“New Zealand’s net migration has fluctuated widely from year to year,” population estimates, projections, and coverage spokesperson Victoria Treliving said.

“But international migration has been the main contributor to New Zealand’s population growth this century, and this is projected to continue.”

The projections indicate New Zealand’s population increasing to around 7 million by 2060, and potentially nearly 8 million by the late 2070s. A much older population is projected, with the median age in the late 40s from the 2060s, compared with 38 years currently. Half the population is younger, and half older, than the median age.

Text alternative for New Zealand population, 1953─2078

The median projection assumes, on average:

• a net migration gain of 42,000 people a year over the next 50 years
• fertility rates easing from 1.59 births per woman in 2025 to 1.55 in 2051 (period total fertility rate)
• life expectancy at birth increasing from 80.8 years and 84.0 years respectively for males and females in 2025, to 88.1 years and 90.5 years respectively in 2078 (period life expectancy at birth).

1 million aged 65+ by 2029

There are currently about 900,000 people aged 65 years and over living in New Zealand. The projections indicate the 65+ population is likely to reach 1 million by 2029, 1.5 million in the early 2050s, and 2 million around 2070.

“The number of people aged 65 years and over is currently increasing by more than 500 people a week,” Treliving said.

“One in 6 New Zealanders is now aged 65 and over. By the mid-2030s this will be 1 in 5, and by 2060 about 1 in 4 will be in this age group.

“In the mid-1960s, 1 in 12 New Zealanders were aged 65 years and over.”

Increasing reliance on migration for population growth

Stats NZ has also produced several ‘what if?’ projections to illustrate other scenarios of interest.

With no migrant arrivals or migrant departures, New Zealand’s population is projected to peak at just under 5.5 million in the early 2040s then slowly decline as deaths outnumber births. Around 2060 the population returns to a similar size as in 2025, 5.3 million, and continues to decline to under 5 million in the mid-2070s.

“A scenario of no migration in or out of New Zealand is unlikely, but helps illustrate the impact of migration on population growth,” Treliving said.

“Natural increase is no longer the main driver of New Zealand’s population growth.”

In contrast, if net migration was 100,000 people every year, the population reaches 7 million around 2040, 9 million in the late 2050s, and 11 million in the early 2070s.

“A very high migration scenario only slightly slows the ageing of the population, with a median age of 45.8 years in 2078 compared with 47.8 years under the median projection. This reflects that migrants inevitably age as well,” Treliving said.

Fertility also has a major impact

The total fertility rate (TFR) indicates the average number of births that women will have during their lifetime.

With a ‘very high’ TFR of 2.1 births per woman (the so-called ‘replacement level’ fertility), New Zealand’s population reaches 7 million around 2050, 8 million in the mid-2060s, and 9 million in the mid-2070s. The 2.1 TFR scenario produces a much younger age structure compared with all other scenarios.

Conversely, if the TFR declines to a ‘very low’ 1.0 births per woman, New Zealand’s population reaches 6 million in the mid-2040s but never get higher than 6.6 million. The 1.0 TFR scenario produces a much older age structure compared with other scenarios, except for the ‘no migration’ scenario.

“Changes in fertility can have a large impact on population growth and age structure,” Treliving said.

“However, there’s no indication that New Zealand fertility rates are about to revert to replacement level, or to decline to the very low levels seen in some European and Asian countries.”

Further projections

These 2024-base projections provide an indication of future population changes, based on demographic trends and current policy settings, to assist planning and policy formulation. Over the coming months, Stats NZ will also publish updated projections of the labour force, ethnic populations, and subnational populations.

Text alternative for New Zealand population, 1953–2078

The fan chart shows the total population living in New Zealand from 1953 to 2078. The total New Zealand population is estimated from 1953 to 2024 and projected from 2025 to 2078. A black line represents the median (50th percentile). The dark shaded area represents the 50 percent range between the 25th and 75th percentiles. There is an estimated 50 percent chance that the total New Zealand population will fall within this dark shaded area. The light shaded area below and above the dark shaded area represents the range between 5th and 25th percentiles, and between the 75th and 95th percentiles. There is an estimated 90 percent chance that the total New Zealand population will fall within the light and dark shaded areas.

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