Stats NZ

New Zealand's population likely to reach 6 million before 2040

The population living in Aotearoa New Zealand is likely to grow from 5.3 million currently to eclipse 6 million by 2040, according to projections released by Stats NZ today.

Two-thirds of that growth is likely to come from net international migration (migrant arrivals less migrant departures), with the remainder from natural increase (births less deaths).

“New Zealand’s net migration has fluctuated widely from year to year,” population estimates, projections, and coverage spokesperson Victoria Treliving said.

“But international migration has been the main contributor to New Zealand’s population growth this century, and this is projected to continue.”

The projections indicate New Zealand’s population increasing to around 7 million by 2060, and potentially nearly 8 million by the late 2070s. A much older population is projected, with the median age in the late 40s from the 2060s, compared with 38 years currently. Half the population is younger, and half older, than the median age.

Graph showing New Zealand population 1953–2078

Text alternative for New Zealand population, 1953─2078

The median projection assumes, on average:

  • a net migration gain of 42,000 people a year over the next 50 years
  • fertility rates easing from 1.59 births per woman in 2025 to 1.55 in 2051 (period total fertility rate)
  • life expectancy at birth increasing from 80.8 years and 84.0 years respectively for males and females in 2025, to 88.1 years and 90.5 years respectively in 2078 (period life expectancy at birth).

1 million aged 65+ by 2029

There are currently about 900,000 people aged 65 years and over living in New Zealand. The projections indicate the 65+ population is likely to reach 1 million by 2029, 1.5 million in the early 2050s, and 2 million around 2070.

“The number of people aged 65 years and over is currently increasing by more than 500 people a week,” Treliving said.

“One in 6 New Zealanders is now aged 65 and over. By the mid-2030s this will be 1 in 5, and by 2060 about 1 in 4 will be in this age group.

“In the mid-1960s, 1 in 12 New Zealanders were aged 65 years and over.”

Increasing reliance on migration for population growth

Stats NZ has also produced several ‘what if?’ projections to illustrate other scenarios of interest.

With no migrant arrivals or migrant departures, New Zealand’s population is projected to peak at just under 5.5 million in the early 2040s then slowly decline as deaths outnumber births. Around 2060 the population returns to a similar size as in 2025, 5.3 million, and continues to decline to under 5 million in the mid-2070s.

“A scenario of no migration in or out of New Zealand is unlikely, but helps illustrate the impact of migration on population growth,” Treliving said.

“Natural increase is no longer the main driver of New Zealand’s population growth.”

In contrast, if net migration was 100,000 people every year, the population reaches 7 million around 2040, 9 million in the late 2050s, and 11 million in the early 2070s.

“A very high migration scenario only slightly slows the ageing of the population, with a median age of 45.8 years in 2078 compared with 47.8 years under the median projection. This reflects that migrants inevitably age as well,” Treliving said.

Created with Highcharts 11.4.8June yearPopulationProjected New Zealand population, 2024–2078Very high migrationVery high fertility50th percentileVery low fertilityNo migration20242026202820302032203420362038204020422044204620482050205220542056205820602062206420662068207020722074207620784M6M8M10M12MStats NZ

Projected New Zealand population, 2024–2078

Created with Highcharts 11.4.8PopulationProjected New Zealand population, 2024–2078Very high migrationVery high fertility50th percentileVery low fertilityNo migration202420262028203020322034203620382040204220442046204820502052205420562058206020622064206620682070207220742076207820…4M6M8M10M12MStats NZ
YearVery high migrationVery high fertility50th percentileVery low fertilityNo migration
202452901005290100529010052901005290100
202553367005337700533670053329005311400
202654079005392200538770053781005331400
202755039005450800544060054231005350200
202856251005512700549480054675005367500
202957466005577200554960055109005383300
203058682005643700560470055530005397600
203159900005711400565950055933005410500
203261120005780000571370056317005421900
203362341005849300576730056684005431900
203463564005919400582050057036005440700
203564789005990000587320057373005448200
203666017006061200592560057699005454600
203767246006132900597760058014005460000
203868478006205000602940058321005464400
203969712006277400608090058621005467800
204070948006349900613210058916005470400
204172185006422400618320059207005472000
204273423006494900623390059495005472700
204374661006567200628440059778005472400
204475898006639300633450060057005471100
204577134006711200638420060331005468700
204678368006782800643350060600005465200
204779599006854000648220060862005460500
204880827006924800653040061119005454600
204982051006995300657800061368005447600
205083271007065500662500061610005439300
205184487007135400667150061844005429800
205285699007205100671730062071005419100
205386908007274800676270062291005407400
205488113007344600680750062502005394500
205589316007414700685200062706005380700
205690516007485200689610062902005365900
205791715007556400693990063090005350300
205892912007628400698350063271005333800
205994109007701400702700063445005316600
206095306007775500707040063612005298700
206196503007850900711370063772005280200
206297700007927500715700063926005261000
206398898008005500720040064073005241200
2064100096008084800724380064215005220900
2065101294008165300728730064352005200100
2066102492008247100733080064484005178700
2067103689008330000737440064610005156900
2068104885008413900741790064732005134500
2069106077008498700746140064849005111500
2070107265008584000750470064960005088000
2071108448008669900754770065065005063800
2072109623008756000759040065162005038900
2073110789008842300763260065253005013200
2074111944008928500767410065334004986700
2075113087009014500771510065407004959300
2076114217009100300775530065471004931100
2077115333009185700779470065525004901900
2078116435009270700783330065569004871900

Fertility also has a major impact

The total fertility rate (TFR) indicates the average number of births that women will have during their lifetime.

With a ‘very high’ TFR of 2.1 births per woman (the so-called ‘replacement level’ fertility), New Zealand’s population reaches 7 million around 2050, 8 million in the mid-2060s, and 9 million in the mid-2070s. The 2.1 TFR scenario produces a much younger age structure compared with all other scenarios.

Conversely, if the TFR declines to a ‘very low’ 1.0 births per woman, New Zealand’s population reaches 6 million in the mid-2040s but never get higher than 6.6 million. The 1.0 TFR scenario produces a much older age structure compared with other scenarios, except for the ‘no migration’ scenario.

“Changes in fertility can have a large impact on population growth and age structure,” Treliving said.

“However, there’s no indication that New Zealand fertility rates are about to revert to replacement level, or to decline to the very low levels seen in some European and Asian countries.”

Further projections

These 2024-base projections provide an indication of future population changes, based on demographic trends and current policy settings, to assist planning and policy formulation. Over the coming months, Stats NZ will also publish updated projections of the labour force, ethnic populations, and subnational populations.

Text alternative for New Zealand population, 1953–2078

The fan chart shows the total population living in New Zealand from 1953 to 2078. The total New Zealand population is estimated from 1953 to 2024 and projected from 2025 to 2078. A black line represents the median (50th percentile). The dark shaded area represents the 50 percent range between the 25th and 75th percentiles. There is an estimated 50 percent chance that the total New Zealand population will fall within this dark shaded area. The light shaded area below and above the dark shaded area represents the range between 5th and 25th percentiles, and between the 75th and 95th percentiles. There is an estimated 90 percent chance that the total New Zealand population will fall within the light and dark shaded areas.

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